Updated 1:26 AM ET on Nov. 5
Nov. 6 Forecast
ELECTORAL VOTES
Barack Obama
307.2
+10.6
since Oct. 28
Mitt Romney
230.8
-10.6
since Oct. 28
Nov. 4: Did Hurricane Sandy Blow Romney Off Course?
By NATE SILVER
If
President Obama wins re-election on Tuesday, the historical memory of
the race might turn on the role played by Hurricane Sandy.
Already, some analysts are describing the storm as an “October surprise” that allowed Mr. Obama to regain his footing after stumbling badly in the first presidential debate and struggling to get back on course. Some Republicans seem prepared to blame a potential defeat for Mitt Romney on the storm, and the embrace of Mr. Obama by New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and other public officials.
The theory has some appeal. The last three days of polling have brought what is almost certainly Mr. Obama’s strongest run of polling since the first presidential debate in Denver. Mr. Obama led in the vast majority of battleground-state polls over the weekend. And increasingly, it is hard to find leads for Mr. Romney in national surveys — although several of them show a tie.
When
the hurricane made landfall in New Jersey on Oct. 29, Mr. Obama’s
chances of winning re-election were 73 percent in the FiveThirtyEight
forecast. Since then, his chances have risen to 86 percent, close to his
highs on the year.
But, while the storm and the response to it may account for some of Mr. Obama’s gains, it assuredly does not reflect the whole of the story. Read more…
Already, some analysts are describing the storm as an “October surprise” that allowed Mr. Obama to regain his footing after stumbling badly in the first presidential debate and struggling to get back on course. Some Republicans seem prepared to blame a potential defeat for Mitt Romney on the storm, and the embrace of Mr. Obama by New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and other public officials.
The theory has some appeal. The last three days of polling have brought what is almost certainly Mr. Obama’s strongest run of polling since the first presidential debate in Denver. Mr. Obama led in the vast majority of battleground-state polls over the weekend. And increasingly, it is hard to find leads for Mr. Romney in national surveys — although several of them show a tie.
But, while the storm and the response to it may account for some of Mr. Obama’s gains, it assuredly does not reflect the whole of the story. Read more…
State and National Polls Come Into Better Alignment
By NATE SILVER
It appears that President Obama is likely to go into Election Day with a very modest lead in the average of national polls.
As of this writing, on Sunday evening, Mr. Obama led by an average of 1.3 percentage points across 12 national polls that had been published over the course of the prior 24 hours. The range was quite tight, running from a tied race in the polls issued by Rasmussen Reports, CNN and Politico, to a three-point lead in three other surveys.
This
happens to be a reasonably friendly group of polls for Mr. Obama, and
it’s more likely than not that at least some national polls published
late Sunday or on Monday will still show Mitt Romney ahead.
Nevertheless, there is enough data to conclude that Mr. Obama probably has a slight edge from national surveys, which until recently had pointed toward a tie — or perhaps a modest advantage for Mr. Romney in the immediate aftermath of the Denver debate.
A number of these polls had very large sample sizes, meaning that the results are less likely than usual to have resulted from statistical variance.
But the modest gains that Mr. Obama has made in the high-profile national surveys should not be that much of a surprise. Read more…
As of this writing, on Sunday evening, Mr. Obama led by an average of 1.3 percentage points across 12 national polls that had been published over the course of the prior 24 hours. The range was quite tight, running from a tied race in the polls issued by Rasmussen Reports, CNN and Politico, to a three-point lead in three other surveys.
Nevertheless, there is enough data to conclude that Mr. Obama probably has a slight edge from national surveys, which until recently had pointed toward a tie — or perhaps a modest advantage for Mr. Romney in the immediate aftermath of the Denver debate.
A number of these polls had very large sample sizes, meaning that the results are less likely than usual to have resulted from statistical variance.
But the modest gains that Mr. Obama has made in the high-profile national surveys should not be that much of a surprise. Read more…
In Virginia, It’s Tradition Versus Change
By MICAH COHEN
We continue our Presidential Geography series,
a one-by-one examination of each state’s political landscape and how it
is changing. Here is Virginia, the Old Dominion. FiveThirtyEight spoke
with Daniel Palazzolo, a professor of political science at the University of Richmond, and Geoffrey Skelley, a political analyst at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.
Polling of the presidential race in Virginia has been particularly volatile. Since the beginning of October, polls at various points have shown both a seven-point lead for Mitt Romney and a seven-point lead for President Obama.
The political landscape in Virginia has shifted dramatically in recent years, and the disagreement among the polls is essentially a disagreement about which Virginia will dominate on Election Day: the reliably Republican “Old Virginia,” which is more religious, rural, working-class and white, or the politically competitive “New Virginia,” which is more secular, urban, diverse and white-collar.
In 2008, New Virginia made its debut at the presidential level, with Mr. Obama becoming the first Democrat to carry the state since 1964. He won by six percentage points.
But in the following two years, Old Virginia has roared back. Read more…
The political landscape in Virginia has shifted dramatically in recent years, and the disagreement among the polls is essentially a disagreement about which Virginia will dominate on Election Day: the reliably Republican “Old Virginia,” which is more religious, rural, working-class and white, or the politically competitive “New Virginia,” which is more secular, urban, diverse and white-collar.
In 2008, New Virginia made its debut at the presidential level, with Mr. Obama becoming the first Democrat to carry the state since 1964. He won by six percentage points.
But in the following two years, Old Virginia has roared back. Read more…
Nov. 3: Romney’s Reason to Play for Pennsylvania
By NATE SILVER
The
Saturday before the election produced a predictably large volume of
polling in battleground states — but also some predictable-seeming
results, with most of the polls coming close to the average of other
polls.
Because President Obama leads in the polling average in most of the swing states, this means that most of the polls there on Saturday showed him ahead as well. Among the 21 polls in battleground states on Saturday, 16 had Mr. Obama ahead as compared with just two leads for Mr. Romney; three other battleground state polls had the race tied.
Some of the consistency in these results may reflect a tendency of polls to converge or “herd” around the polling average
close to Election Day. This may occur because some polling firms alter
their turnout models or other aspects of the polls so as not to produce
outliers — a dubious practice if the goal is to provide an objective
take on the race.
At the same time, Mr. Obama’s state polls continue to show more strength than they did just after the Denver debate. As we wrote on Saturday, we are at the point where the polls would have to be biased against Mr. Romney (in a statistical sense) in order for him to win the Electoral College.
It is worth emphasizing the point once more that, for all the distractions caused by individual polls, the polling averages have been very reliable in the era of rich state polling. Read more…
Because President Obama leads in the polling average in most of the swing states, this means that most of the polls there on Saturday showed him ahead as well. Among the 21 polls in battleground states on Saturday, 16 had Mr. Obama ahead as compared with just two leads for Mr. Romney; three other battleground state polls had the race tied.
At the same time, Mr. Obama’s state polls continue to show more strength than they did just after the Denver debate. As we wrote on Saturday, we are at the point where the polls would have to be biased against Mr. Romney (in a statistical sense) in order for him to win the Electoral College.
It is worth emphasizing the point once more that, for all the distractions caused by individual polls, the polling averages have been very reliable in the era of rich state polling. Read more…
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